Thad Williamson

The first is a 1999 poll of more than 1,100 Richmond metropolitan residents conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University that I recently analyzed. That poll shows, not surprisingly, that residents of the city of Richmond were markedly more likely than residents of Henrico, Hanover, and Chesterfield counties to rate crime as a serious problem in their neighborhood and in their locality.

It also showed that perceptions of the crime problem in downtown Richmond were markedly more negative among county residents. Simply put, crime is a serious concern for Richmond residents, and the perception of Richmond as a crime-ridden city damages the likelihood that suburbanites (and newcomers to the area) will want to shop, work, live, or open a business in the city.

The second data point is 55 — the number of homicides in Richmond in 2007, the lowest in over a quarter century.

The third data point is 86 percent: that's the percentage of Richmond voters who said they had a favorable view of Richmond Police Chief Rodney Monroe in a poll conducted by Christopher Newport University last month. (Monroe was hired by Wilder in early 2005.) Eighty percent of Richmond voters also said they had a favorable view of the city's progress in fighting crime.

The fourth data point is Wilder's State of the City address delivered in late January. Wilder painted a rosy view of the city's progress on his watch, with reference to two big themes: reduced crime and increased corporate investment in the city over the past three years. There are other issues Wilder could point to as well, such as the relatively popularity of the downtown redevelopment plan his administration set in motion, but the guess here is that crime and corporate investment will be the big two themes in a Wilder re-election bid.

That platform might be surprisingly hard to beat. Why surprising? Well, the CNU poll also shows that more than 70 percent of Richmond voters aren't pleased with the working relationships between the city and the school board or between the mayor and City Council, and believe that the Braves baseball situation was botched. Roughly 60 percent think the city's leadership is not doing a good job on schools or city finances, either. And more than 70 percent say they favor "change" to move Richmond in a new direction.

Those are seemingly bad numbers for any incumbent, but Wilder himself is still viewed favorably by just over half the electorate. The numbers are even better when citizens are asked whether Wilder has brought "hope for a better life to all its citizens," made good economic progress and improved how the city is run.

In short, Wilder has, despite the myriad controversies of his first term, enough going for him to mount a confident re-election bid.

And what of the would-be opposition? Well, the first thing that is missing is a candidate, the second thing that's missing is a coalition drawing together all the various constituencies who have reason to be unhappy with the mayor, and the third thing missing is a substantive agenda to run on. Obviously those three things go hand in hand.

The most formidable potential opposition candidate is the Rev. Dr. Dwight C. Jones, a member of the House of Delegates representing Richmond's Southside and parts of Chesterfield and Henrico. If Jones is to take on Wilder and win, he's going to have to build a multiracial coalition, craft a compelling message that appeals to all parts of the city, and persuade voters that he can put an end to the constant in-fighting emanating from City Hall. (Endorsements from sitting council members wouldn't hurt in making the case.) He's also going to have to hope that the likely presence of multiple challengers to Wilder — former councilwoman Jackie Jackson and former Wilder advisor Paul Goldman are already in the race — does not allow the incumbent to divide and conquer.

Most formidable of all, Jones will have to figure out how to neutralize Wilder's ace in the hole: that falling homicide rate, and the mayor's association with Rodney Monroe, whom most residents are ready to award the key to the city. Expect to hear a lot of talk from Wilder about how great Monroe has been, how much other cities would like to have him, and what a shame it would be if he were to leave.

Finally, here's one more potential factor to throw into the mixer: the potential political benefit Wilder might get if Barack Obama eventually becomes the Democratic presidential nominee. Wilder is a strong backer of Obama, and the city of Richmond went overwhelmingly (79 percent) for Obama in last month's Democratic primary. That's another potential advantage for the mayor. If Virginia is "in play" in the presidential election and Obama sweeps into the state anywhere near Richmond, expect Wilder to find his way on to the stage for a valuable photo op that could benefit both men.

Unlike in 2004, Doug Wilder on his own name is not a shoo-in. But as part of a mythical Obama-Wilder-Monroe ticket — that is, by alliance with two folks very popular in Richmond right now — Wilder has a much better chance of re-election than many critics assume.

Thad Williamson is an assistant professor of Leadership Studies at the University of Richmond. After growing up in Chapel Hill, N.C., he earned his bachelor's degree at Brown University, a master's degree in theology from Union Theological Seminary (New York) and a doctorate in political science from Harvard University. He is the author of three books and has written on public affairs for numerous national publications.

Norman Leahy

It's been a long, long four years since Doug Wilder swept to victory in the race for Richmond mayor. He ran on a general theme of cleaning up city government and, along the way, restoring a sense of pride and purpose to a town whose political and civic culture seemed near death.

It's hard to say whether he's succeeded during the last four years, but Richmond voters will get the opportunity this November to have their own say on the Wilder years and whether they should continue.

And already, folks are lining up to convince voters that four years of Doug is long enough.

Longtime Wilder staffer and political guru Paul Goldman has declared his candidacy, as has former City Council member Jackie Jackson. Del. Dwight Jones might get into the race, too, along with contractor Al Bowers. Council president Bill Pantele's name has been mentioned, as has former Commonwealth's Attorney David Hicks.

In other words, the list of actually and potential candidates is pretty big. But there's one name missing:

Doug Wilder.

Hizzoner has not made any official announcement on whether he will seek a second term. Maybe he's just playing hard to get. That would follow the pattern he set with his first race and it served him well then. But a lot has changed since those carefree days of 2004.

Wilder has butted heads with just about every interest group, politician, reporter and functionary possible during his tenure. He's engaged in nasty, running feuds with both the City Council and the school board that, while making for excellent political theater, really haven't resulted in any lasting changes. Or even temporary ones.

He's managed to allow the festering boondoggle that is the Virginia Performing Arts Center to survive (thanks in part to its feeding tube, the 1 percent meals tax). He presided over the throttling of the proposed baseball stadium in Shockoe Bottom, but also did nothing to keep the Richmond Braves from deciding to leave town. City bureaucrats still retain their penchant for dipping their hand into the city till and smack talk between departments, elected officials and innocent bystanders still seems to be the rule, rather than the exception.

Other than that, how's he doin'?

Oddly enough, better than his unelected predecessors.

While Wilder may not exactly be on many council member's Christmas card lists, he has managed to re-energize city government. Some may think of it as more of an electric shock, but think back to the pre-Wilder days, when the unlamented Calvin Jamison was driving the city to the brink of fiscal and social disaster (not to mention crafting his own golden parachute once he was forced out on office). Were those the good old days? Hardly. They were the conditions that gave Wilder an open door to power.

But what of those who seek to replace him? Can they do any better?

Jackie Jackson strikes me as a candidate in search of a constituency. Since her defeat at the hands of Reva Trammell back in 2006, Jackson has unsuccessfully sought a Henrico House of Delegates seat and now is giving the mayor's office a run. She has her supporters, who believe her to be both bright and forthright. But Wilder doesn't like her … and his efforts helped toppled her council re-election bid. If he runs again, Jackson doesn't stand a chance.

How about Dwight Jones? He and Wilder have long and not always friendly ties. Jones is a protégé of Henry Marsh – a longtime and vocal Wilder opponent. While a Jones candidacy may not seem to be a shadow boxing match between Wilder and Marsh, that's how it will be played in public. And at least so far, Wilder has won most of those contests.

Bill Pantele? Oh please.

The more interesting challenger, of course, is Paul Goldman. Usually, Goldman was the one wielding Wilder's daggers – with enormous success. Some have wondered whether Goldman is actually just a Wilder stalking horse. While that might make for interesting cocktail conversation, it's a bit arch, even for the two of them.

Rather, Goldman is the only one who brings the necessary skills and knowledge to a campaign that could defeat Wilder – and he knows it. Goldman's unsuccessful City Council bid notwithstanding, he's got what it takes to give Wilder a fight the likes of which Hizzoner hasn't seen since the 1989 gubernatorial race.

Goldman's greatest failing, however, is his lack of that essential ingredient for political success: Stage presence. Wit, skill and knowledge are wonderful attributes in any candidate and Goldman has them all. But he doesn't have the power to light up a room like Wilder does. And in retail politics, this failing is also fatal.

Which means that, for better or worse, the mayoral race is Wilder's to lose. The only question is whether he is willing to subject himself to another campaign.

I think he said it best himself, nearly three years ago in a Washington Post profile: "I know a lot of people are wondering … what's the old bastard going to do next?"

How Wilder answers that question will determine who wins in November.

Norman Leahy is vice president for public affairs at Tertium Quids, a statewide, free market advocacy organization. He is a contributor to several Virginia political blogs, including Bacon's Rebellion, Sic Semper Tyrannis, Bearing Drift and NBC 12's Decision Virginia. A 2006 graduate of the Sorensen Institute, Norman and his family live in Henrico County.