Is Virginia's out-migration trend starting to turn?

That out-migration trend is a key economic indicator Gov. Glenn Youngkin watches. He regularly cites data showing more people leaving Virginia for other states than coming from the other 49 as a reason for his $1 billion of tax cuts.

But somewhat more current, if limited, data from U-Haul and from United Van Lines shows a better balance between in- and out-of-state moves, his office notes.

“We view these data points as a nod to the progress made under Governor Youngkin’s tenure,” said press secretary Macaulay Porter.

United Van Lines reported more moves into Virginia than out last year — the ratio was 52% inbound to 48% outbound.

U-Haul said Virginia saw the fifth-highest total of one-way hires going into the state of all 50 states last year, up from 31st the year before.

Youngkin watches the Census Bureau’s population estimates and how these estimates track moves in and out of states. He says data shows that more people have left than moved here for nine of the past 10 years. Although Virginia’s population has grown over that period, some 132,000 more people have moved out than moved in.

The top reason Youngkin has cited for this is the cost of living, and that is why he says it is critical for Virginia’s future to cut taxes. His current proposal, stalled now between the House of Delegates and the state Senate, calls for cutting the top rate for individual income taxes from 5.75% to 5.5%, boosting the standard deduction to $9,000 for single filers and $18,000 for joint returns, and cutting corporate income taxes from 6% to 5%.

United Van Lines says the most common reason people give for leaving Virginia is job change, with 5.7% of its customers citing the cost of living as the reason. On the other hand, the company reports that 11.7% of those moving to Virginia say they are doing so to take advantage of the cost of living here.

While the most recent Census Bureau data shows 23,952 more people left Virginia for other states than moved here from the rest of the U.S. during the 12-month period that ended July 1, 2022, it also shows some 37,692 more people moved here from outside the U.S. than left Virginia for other nations.

The main states with which Virginia competes when companies want to set up new facilities — which the Youngkin administration identifies as Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas — saw 896,694 more people move in than leave last year, census data show.

Separately, IRS data, based on addresses and exemptions taxpayers report for themselves and their dependents, shows a net out-migration of 7,352 people between 2019 and 2020, the last year for which it reported the data. This is down from the decade’s peak of 25,556 between 2013 and 2014. The IRS reported a net in-migration between 2013 and 2014 and between 2011 and 2012.

The top five states Virginians moved to between 2019 and 2020 were low-tax North Carolina and Florida, followed by Maryland, where tax burdens are higher; low-tax Texas; and high-tax California, the IRS reported.