Democrat Terry McAuliffe has vaulted into the lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli in a Virginia governor’s race that has left many voters sour on both candidates, according to a new Washington Post/Abt-SRBI poll.
McAuliffe leads 47 percent to 39 percent among likely voters, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis’ 10 percent suggesting an unrest among voters not satisfied with either major-party contender. In a one-on-one matchup without Sarvis in the mix, the poll shows a narrower 49-44 race between McAuliffe and Cuccinelli among likely voters — but still flips Cuccinelli’s 10-point lead from this spring.
The shift in the race has come almost exclusively from women voters, who prefer McAuliffe by a 24-point margin over Cuccinelli. The candidates were effectively tied among women in Washington Post poll in May.
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McAuliffe’s strength among women is likely due in part to an intense campaign to portray Cuccinelli as a threat to women and the issues they might care about most deeply. A new McAuliffe ad, for instance, features a Norfolk OB-GYN speaking directly to the camera about how she is “offended” by Cuccinelli’s position on abortion rights.
The challenge for Cuccinelli is stark: Nearly half of all voters view him unfavorably, and they trust his opponent as much as or more than him on every major issue, according to the poll.
Cuccinelli has accused McAuliffe and Democrats of waging a war on coal and working-class Virginians, but he trails by 9 points among voters asked whom they trust more on energy and the environment. He has burnished his reputation among conservatives by opposing President Barack Obama’s health care law, but voters favor McAuliffe by 8 points when it comes to health care. Cuccinelli does best when it comes to transportation and the economy and jobs; he is tied with McAuliffe on those issues.
McAuliffe faces his own challenges, according to the poll, which found that both candidates have been marred by scandal. Roughly one-third of voters say they are less likely to vote for Cuccinelli as a result of his connection to the gifts scandal that has engulfed the man he hopes to succeed, Gov. Bob McDonnell. Cuccinelli was touched by the scandal because he accepted $18,000 in gifts from the Richmond-area businessman who lavished far more than that on the McDonnell family; the attorney general donated the money to charity this month.
Even more voters, however — 40 percent — say they are less likely to vote for McAuliffe as a result of the federal investigation of GreenTech, the electric car company he co-founded.
The numbers suggest that the scandals have impeded both campaigns from offering an ethical contrast.
Both candidates show room for growth in their approval ratings: Cuccinelli is viewed unfavorably by 47 percent of voters, while McAuliffe is seen that way by 36 percent.
Yet the poll suggests that McAuliffe’s base of support is more stable — and that he has navigated a maze of scandals and attacks more cleanly than the Republican. The Democrat is seen favorably by 48 percent of registered voters, compared with 40 percent for Cuccinelli.
McAuliffe, who has received some GOP endorsements and promotes the idea that he can work across the political aisle, has established more crossover appeal than his rival. He is viewed favorably by 29 percent of Republicans, while just 12 percent of Democrats feel that way about Cuccinelli. McAuliffe takes 6 percent of Republicans in the three-way matchup, while Cuccinelli gets less than 1 percent of Democrats.
Economic issues remain paramount for Virginia voters — but far less so than they were four months ago: 29 percent now say the economy and jobs are the most important issue in the race for governor, down from 45 percent in May. Several other issues have ticked up slightly, including a 5-point bump for “ethics, honesty and corruption in government.”
